June 28th MLB Plays

Current Record: 7-3 (70%)

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Nationals @ Mariners 1:10 PM PT

As I have highlighted before, I base all of these picks on certain spots that teams are in. Along with this, I try to find value of struggling teams that we know can play better. The Seattle Mariners are an example of this. After a tough loss to DC last night, the Mariners respond in a big way today. I also love this pitching matchup for the M’s. Logan Gilbert is a proven big league arm that is Mr. Consistent for the M’s. The once all-star Patrick Corbin has lost his feel. His velo is down, and his era is up—the M’s bounce back today.

Mariners -1.5 (-125)

Padres @ Pirates 4:05 PM PT

How bout the wanna-be Yankees when it comes to spending San Diego Padres and the re-building Pittsburg Pirates having a nearly identical record 79 games into the MLB season? We’ve got a supreme pitching matchup today with the Padres throwing heating-up ex-Husky Blake Snell against the Pirates ace Mitch Keller. Honestly, I don’t know much about Keller, but he is up there at the top of the ranks in both strikeouts and ERA. Nonetheless, this Padres lineup will be too much for him today, and the Padres roll here. As I said early, the Padres will start to heat up, and I think it starts by taking some games off of the Pirates. Padres ML (-165)

Giants @ Blue Jays 4:07 PM PT

The Bay vs. the Canadians. I like the new MLB format of every team playing each other during the regular season. At this moment, there still isn’t a line out yet on this game because the Blue Jays haven’t announced a starting pitcher. Whatever it is though, I am all over the Giants today. Logan Webb got a little dinged up in his last outing against the D-Backs (finished one strikeout short of his over). Here, I think he shoves against a scary Jays lineup and gets himself back to a sub-3 ERA.

Giants +/- anything

Phillies @ Cubs 5:05 PM PT

Aaron Nola has come back down to Earth after his insane 2022 season. With a 4.38 ERA, he has been average this year. The veteran Drew Smyly has been dealing this year with a 3.38 ERA. I believe the law of average balance these two guys out, and the Phillies take this one. Harper goes yard twice today, and the Phillies roll here.

Phillies ML (-141)

Yankees @ Athletics 6:40 PM PT

The Yankees’ -146 feels like one of the biggest trap bets of all time. Why aren’t they bigger favorites? Is Aaron Judge that important to this team? Yes, he is. But there is too much value here to not sprinkle the Yankees today. I am not going to look at this game until it is over.

Yankees -146 (ML)

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