The Bettor's Edge

As sports betting becomes legal in more states, both its popularity and prevalence increase as well. Once considered a taboo and illegal activity, sports betting has officially entered the mainstream, and it is here to stay. However, the Tony Soprano era in the industry has not disappeared completely. While most states in the US have either legalized, or are on their way to legalizing sports betting, there are some that have held out. And these stubborn few force their citizens to continue to use the infamous “bookie” to place their bets. And while some niche parts of the industry like DFS have kept up with the modernization of the global betting market, other sectors continue to operate in a cloud of opacity. There is no better example of this than the marketplace for Handicappers.

Handicappers, also known as touts or sharps, are essentially self-proclaimed betting experts. The original definition has to do with assigning a handicap, primarily to horses and golfers, to make the betting field fair. Now, the definition has evolved into defining anyone on Twitter who can make enough noise that they convince other bettors to pay them for advice. Here is how that process usually works.

A handicapper will have a public Twitter account allowing anyone to follow them, and where they occasionally post free betting advice. This is where they will also display their statistics and record. Then, if one of their followers wants a little more than a few free plays per week, they can Venmo the handicapper a fee to gain access to their private Twitter. This is where Handicappers post all their plays. Usually these payments are subscriptions, and the bettor will have to pay a monthly fee for continued access to the account.

Here is the issue. It is completely up to the handicapper to self-report his own success. They can easily lie about their record to their followers, and they can simply delete any losing bets from Twitter because... It’s Twitter. It is therefore impossible to verify if a Handicapper is accurately reporting their success, or whether they are manipulating their record to appear more successful for prospective buyers. It is quite literally a perfect example of fraud. And if that wasn’t enough, there is no way to use a handicapper’s stats to sort, filter or compare because again... It’s Twitter. Twitter was designed to post opinions, not act as a commerce tool for buying and selling betting advice.

This is a pervasive issue within a multi-billion dollar industry that leads many unaware, novice bettors to pay excessive premiums for betting advice, only to discover they would have had better statistical odds from pulling a winner out of a hat. One of the most well-known culprits of this industry is a man who goes by the name Vegas Dave. He has 10.1 million followers on Instagram, and almost 70,000 on Twitter. He charges $199 per day if you want access to his picks, and sometimes charges up to $500 for just one game! The problem is he notoriously lies about his record. At one point, he claimed his “Super Whale Record” (the games he is most confident in, and charges the most for), was 46-1... To put that into perspective, assuming all his bets had relatively even odds, the statistical probability of him doing that is 0.0000000000341% or 3.41 x 10-11. You literally have a better chance of being struck by lightning 3 times!

And it's not only buyers that are fed up with this unreliability and dishonesty. Brendan Aumiller, a gambling personality with almost 30,000 followers on Twitter, said “For years I’ve witnessed handicappers finesse the system, bending the truth about their track records. In 2022, there is no excuse for self-reporting your betting track record. Certain platforms like BlackBook eliminate the stigma of suspect bet tracking, providing the ultimate transparent platform. Months from now, it will be a red flag if you aren’t using verified platforms to validate your betting tracking record.”

So where is the industry headed? Luckily, this is a problem that everyone is fed up with, and change is coming. There are platforms being built that address this issue of transparency. Looking to track picks? The Action Network allows you to follow some of the best bettors in the game. Looking to buy or sell picks? BlackBook Sports provides a completely transparent and verified marketplace to buy from Handicappers, providing reassurance that their record is accurate. With new technology being built and updated legislation passing every month, the industry will continue to walk towards the mainstream light and leave behind those still operating in darkness.