The Jerk Report: Week 4

Find all of Danny's picks here!

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Week 3 Recap: ALERT ALERT ALERT: The JERK is HOT!. If you read The Jerk Report last week, you know that it’s possible to be good at gambling the NFL. After a money making week 3, we’ll see if I can convert back to back big winner weeks. The NFL finally seemed to come back to Earth last week after 2 insane Sundays. Week 3 seems to be the week where teams start to form new identities, whether it be the Patriots being the new Lions or the Jets being the new... well the Jets are and always will be the same old Jets. Here are two teams I think are trending in the opposite directions:

Week 3 Biggest Winner: Jacksonville Jaguars and Trevor Lawrence Every 2nd year quarterback in the league right now is either a confirmed bust or still has major question marks. No matter what any shit for brains ESPN “analyst” says, the futures of Justin Fields, Zach Wilson, Mac Jones, Trey Lance, and Davis Mills are still completely up in the air, and if you are leaning one way or another on these guys, your guess is as good as anyone else's. The only QB who has seemed “worth it” is the former #1 overall pick, Trevor Lawrence. TLaw and the Jags are coming off 2 HUGE W’s against the Colts and Chargers and will be taking on the red hot Philadelphia Eagles in week 4.

Week 3 Biggest Loser: New Orleans Saints This biggest loser may surprise you since the Saints weren’t huge favorites against the Panthers last week, but boy did their offense look abysmal. In addition to looking like hot garbage, they lost MVP favorite Jameis Winston to a worsening back injury for this week as well as star WR Michael Thomas. Things are looking down for a banged up Saints team, and it looks like Tom Fraudy is going to cake walk to another division championship.. Now onto week 4.

Week 4 Preview: The important thing about gambling, and especially gambling football, is to know when you are outmatched. Vegas has me, and in my opinion, the entire country in a whirlwind right now laying out the fattest pieces of cheese under the deadliest traps you’ve ever seen. Look, I’m going to be honest with you... at one point during this week I considered waiving the white flag and not betting AT ALL. I was scared. Nervous. Unsure of myself and yet confident that Vegas had won. But to this I say, not today my friends... not today. Tomorrow may be a bloodbath, but I’ll never go down without a fight so read on for some locks I made while sniffing out the cheese.

Minnesota Vikings vs New Orleans Saints - 6:30 AM PST Okay, so you read above that the Saints STINK and lost their starting QB and starting QB and you read above about how this week’s slate stinks of rats. This is one of those ratty games. Why in the WORLD are the Vikings only -3 against a banged up Saints team that is being led by Andy Dalton??? It makes no sense to me. Call me a rat, call me a square, I don’t care. Vikings -3 is the play on rational alone that you should NEVER bet on Andy Dalton in 2022.

Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts - 10 AM PST Sigh,,, here we go again with Vegas’ bullshit. I mean I get it, the Colts just had a great win against the Chiefs where they looked decent, but giving 3.5 in a divisional battle just seems wrong. I guess I’ll be the fucking rat I am and take the cheese again. Titans +3.5

Chicago Bears @ New York Giants - 10 AM PST This game sucksssssss. Please, if you don’t have to watch this game do not bet on it. Under no circumstances should you even be forced to watch this game and it not be considered torture. If I was a Bears or Giants fan, I’d simply throw NFL redzone on and maybe this game gets a smaller TV with no sound. I’m staying as far away as I possibly can from this game.

Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens - 10 AM PST This game is the total antithesis of the Bears/Giants game above. This game is the balls. It’s going to be a points points points show with two electric QBs out of Josh Allen and Lamar. The Ravens are +3 as of right now, and I really like them as a home underdog in this game. I don’t have them off the top of my head, but I know Lamar is a DAWG ATS as a home underdog and I think the Ravens have a good chance of winning this game, so I’ll take

Baltimore +3.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Houston Texans - 10 AM PST I think the Chargers are getting way too much love right now. Justin Herbert was clearly in some pain with his rib injury last week, and Keenan Allen has been fighting a hammy injury. Yes, I know the Texans are a shitty team but I think 5.5 is a lot of points for a home team going up against a banged up overrated Chargers team. I’m not putting it in bold as an official play, but I’d rather have the Texans in this one rather than the Chargers.

New York Jets @ Pittsburg Steelers - 10 AM PST If you would like information on this game, please look back at the Chicago Bears @ New York Giants preview and simply switch the teams names!

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Philadelphia Eagles - 10 AM PST I would have shocked the nation if I told you this game would be a marquee matchup in Week 4. But here we are, the Jags look extremely competent and the Eagles look like legitimate Super Bowl contenders. I’ve been riding both of these teams' hot hands so far this year, and for that reason I’m going to take the points in this game. I think the Eagles are a great team but they haven’t really played any good teams yet and I think the Jags come into Philly and whether or not they win, they prove they are for real. Jags +6.5 is a winner, and don’t be afraid to buy a half point to 7.

Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys - 10 AM PST Cooper Rush might be good? Maybe? I think we’ll find out in this game that he isn’t good, or, at least, is average and won’t go out and WIN a game for his team. The Cowboys’ defense has looked amazing through three weeks though, and I could definitely see them carrying America’s Team to a W. I’m pretty nervous about this game, and don’t feel comfortable with these picks,

but I think the Commanders will find a way to cover in this game. In addition to the former R-Words, I think this game delivers another NFC East stinker and goes under 41.5.

Cleveland Browns @ Atlanta Falcons - 10 AM PST Hmmmm I have no idea what to think of this game. I think both of these teams have a ton of fight in them and will be frisky underdogs all season, but I really don’t see either QB seizing control of this game and leading their team to a statement win. At the end of the day, I’m more confident in the Browns playmakers and for that reason I’m leaning towards Browns -1.

Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers I might have an issue... I’ve never in my life felt like I was seriously seriously addicted to gambling, but I think I may be addicted to gambling on the Arizona Cardinals. I don’t know why I do it. I hate Kliff Kingsbury, I don’t think Kyler is good, and they have lost me countless dollars. And yet here I am. The sick fuck that I am loading up on the Arizona Cardinals. I’m not confident. This isn’t a “lock” or anything close to it. I have an issue and I need help. Send me to ACA - Arizona Cardinals +1.

Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders Oooh a fun one. The game of “what organization can let down their fanbase the most”. After 3 games, the Broncos are already BOOING the franchise quarterback they have been looking for since 2015. On the other side, the Raiders were expected to make a deep playoff run after adding arguably the best offensive weapon in the league and are yet to win again. Both of these head coaches are in SERIOUS trouble right now but unfortunately I have no read on this game other than this: Vegas and bookmakers are BEGGING you to take the Broncos as underdogs. Don’t do it. Don’t fall for the trap. Be a sharp! Raiders -2.5.

New England Patriots @ Green Bay Packers The Patriots are no longer the Patriots that we once knew. They just aren’t and this spread tells the whole story. Yes Mac Jones is hurt but Bellichick getting 9.5 points is simply disrespectful. The real play here, though, is the under. Both of these offenses have been extremely slow so far and I don’t see why anything would be different in this game. I think this will be a 2 unit play for me. Let’s go UNDER 40.5. SNF + MNF Previews Loading...

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